Sunday, March 16, 2008

One Coincidence Does Not Give Rise To Another

I enjoy a good logical fallacy.  They sound convincing and authoritative, but when fully considered amount to nothing.  I want to provide some examples, but the wikipedia article linked above does a much better job.

December 21, 2012 is coming, and the latest internet fad is to wear a Nostradamus hat and proclaim "the end is neigh!"  This is a simple non-sequitur.  The neat-looking date "12 21 2012" must be ominous, so naturally the end of the world must be neigh.  Whatever that means.  Oh, the Mayan calendar, which you no doubt use every day, happens to "end" on that date (I haven't checked for myself).

The way I see it, when you use a wheel for a calendar, it will occasionally go 'round.

What's even better is that the argument is supported by the true claim that , "the Sun and the Earth will be aligned that day."  It turns out that the Sun and the Earth are always aligned, because two points always describe a line.

Most people discussing this are probably not actually expecting the world to end.  They probably know how bad the conclusion actually is.  All well and good, and the broader topic is interesting in a Schneier "risk assessment" kind of way.

Whatever you do, keep your fingers crossed just in case (which is another interesting topic, if you know what I mean).

1 comment:

Tea Pot with Natasha said...

"The end of the world can't be true, so it's not true." Hehe.